After the elimination of Benazir Bhutto, Sharif is the only politician who has a mass base in the state of Punjab. From these three politicians, I would say that he is the only one who has a future. Of course, when President Musharraf first seized power, he had Sharif arrested.
Sharif apologised in order to get himself released from jail but that period of his life is behind him There is a Great Game being played out in Pakistan. I believe that if Sharif has to be destroyed, it will be done in the name of Islam. Sharif is close to the Saudis and they allowed him to live in their country for the last eight years. When he returned to Pakistan, a Saudi prince escorted him back. So, in that sense, Sharif does not have a weak hand. But we must not forget that on the question of Islam, American and Saudi interests are not on the same line. The US is scared of radical Islam. It does not suit them. Sharif has at present chosen to stay out of the government. He wants a civil government installed and a return to democracy. That is why he is pressing for the reinstatement of the dismissed judges.Musharraf’s interests, on the other hand, are extremely limited. He is saying, “Don’t get rid of me.” He supports the US and vice-versa. The Pakistan Army will get along with Musharraf.
So basically, Musharraf, Zardari and the US will survive together for the time being. It’s obvious that Musharraf’s and Zardari’s interests coincide. They can survive by helping each other.
Obviously, two sides in this triangular contest will stay together in order to help each another.
My experience is that countries which are not democratic have no guarantors. Our own situation is India is very different. As a democracy, we have been able to build strong institutions and so are able to stand on our own feet.Terrorism worries America.
Look at what has been happening in Pakistan for the past two years. They have been sending pilotless planes into the NorthWest Frontier Province in order to bomb their own people. It’s a very messy game being played out there. Both Balochistan and the North-West Frontier have become extremely radical. I may be sounding extremely cynical but democracy (in Pakistan) is an ideal that only people in Lahore are ready to buy. Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan’s family is not very radical. It is therefore a very good sign that his grandson is the present chief minister of that state. The question, of course, is how does India safeguard its own interests, especially with the stepping-up of militant activity along our western border? We need to understand that Pakistan was never a moderate state. They were always under the influence of radical Islam. The most important agitation that the Muslim League launched in order to get Pakistan was Direct Action. Both Jinnah and Liaquat Ali represented the forces of moderation but they went away sooner than was expected.
I must emphasise that radical Islam was not born today. It was the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan which saw an upsurge of ultra-rightwing forces. Some years ago, when I met former Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev at an international meet, I asked him, “Mr President, we were your friends.
But you did not inform us about the invasion.” He replied, “I did not know about it myself. I came to know about it on the third day through the newspaper. There was a junta within the politburo who had ordered it.” Everything does not work according to one’s calculations.
By pressing for democracy, Sharif is growing in stature by the day. Obviously, the patience of the public is also wearing thin.
The counterweight to these radical elements will come from Punjab. Punjab is the only state which has a small middle class.
Nawaz represents this middle class. It is for this reason that he suits India more than the others.