Counting of votes will begin across the state at 8 am on Sunday, and almost all projections indicate that there might be a hung Assembly for the second consecutive time. The first results are expected by 11 am, and almost all results are likely to be declared by late Sunday afternoon.
A senior BJP leader said: “The increase in the BSP’s voteshare could hit the Congress hard.” BJP spin doctors are confident that the increase in the BSP’s vote percentage would benefit the saffron camp. The leader added: “Another post-poll survey conducted by the BJP once again confirmed that Mayawati would strengthen her position in the state, as far as voteshare was concerned.” The BSP is contesting 219 of the 224 Assembly seats in the state.
Both the BSP and the Samajwadi Party are in the fray in Karnataka. Though neither of the parties are expected to win any significant number of seats, both could eat into the voteshare of other major players, particularly the Congress.
The BJP has also been talking of major “consolidation” of the Lingayat community in its favour. The BJP’s Chief Ministerial candidate, Mr B.S.Yeddyurappa, belongs to the politically-dominant Lingayat community. According to the saffron brigade’s calculations, the BSP would “eat into the Congress’ dalit votebank.” It can be mentioned that in the 2004 Assembly polls in Karnataka a major chunk of the dalit votebank had shifted from the Congress to the BSP.
Sources said that “Congress managers were somewhat apprehensive of a similar outcome.” If Ms Mayawati’s charge could hit the Congress hard, the BJP strategists were a bit wary of the Samajwadi Party.
The SP, led by Mr S. Bangarappa, is contesting nearly 50 seats in the state. A BJP strategist pointed out that during the 2004 polls, Mr Bangarappa was with the saffron brigade and it had “helped us to a great extent to emerge as the single largest party.” However, Mr Bangarappa, 76, has now been talking of the need to “oust the communal forces from Karnataka.” Mr Bangarappa is contesting against Mr Yeddyurappa.
BJP leaders in New Delhi claimed that there was a “kind of wave in favour of the party,” and that Mr Bangarappa would not be able to make any dent in it. The party also denied speculation that some of its top brass were holding “secret parleys” with Janata Dal (Secular) chief H.D. Deve Gowda.
Trying to cast her spell over the 22 per cent dalits in the state, Ms Mayawati had taken on all the three outfits — BJP, Congress and JD(S) — during her campaigning.
Though the BJP has played on the “betrayal by the JD(S)” and exhorted the electorate to “give the party a last chance,” it is quite apprehensive about what might transpire on Sunday. “It just might be difficult for us to touch the magic figure and we might fall short by maybe 15 seats,” a party leader said. Some of the BJP top brass are preparing to rush to the state in the event of a hung Assembly.